### Navegando por Navegando por Palavras-chave "Instrumental variables"

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Item Asymptotic efficiency in an instrumental variable model(2015-04-28) Chaves, Leonardo Salim SakerThis work studies the hypothesis testing based on generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation given by instruments condition. The importance for the development of Economics lies on the fact that when identi cation is weak, the standard test can be misleading. Therefore, it is made a review of proposed tests to overcome this problem and also present two useful frameworks of study; from Moreira (2002), Moreira and Moreira (2013) and Kleibergen (2005). So, this work conciliate the previous frameworks a way to write the score proposed initially in Kleibergen (2005) using Moreira and Moreira (2013) statistics and presents the optimal score test based on asymptotic theory from Newey and McFadden (1984). Moreover, the study shows the equivalence between the GMM and maximum likelihood estimation to deal with the weak instruments problem.Item The causal effect of family size on child labor and education(2007-07-20) Ponczek, Vladimir Pinheiro; Souza, André PortelaThis paper investigates the causal relationship between family size and child labor and education among brazilian children. More especifically, it analyzes the impact of family size on child labor, school attendance, literacy and school progression. It explores the exogenous variation in family size driven by the presence of twins in the family. The results are consistent under the reasonable assumption that the instrument is a random event. Using the nationally representative brazilian household survey (Pnad), detrimental effects are found on child labor for boys. Moreover, significant effects are obtained for school progression for girls caused by the exogenous presence of the young siblings in the household.Item A conditional likelihood ratio test for structural models(Fundação Getulio Vargas. Escola de Pós-graduação em Economia, 2002-05-29) Moreira, Marcelo J.This paper develops a general method for constructing similar tests based on the conditional distribution of nonpivotal statistics in a simultaneous equations model with normal errors and known reducedform covariance matrix. The test based on the likelihood ratio statistic is particularly simple and has good power properties. When identification is strong, the power curve of this conditional likelihood ratio test is essentially equal to the power envelope for similar tests. Monte Carlo simulations also suggest that this test dominates the Anderson- Rubin test and the score test. Dropping the restrictive assumption of disturbances normally distributed with known covariance matrix, approximate conditional tests are found that behave well in small samples even when identification is weak.Item Cursed by local institutions? An analysis of the role of institutions in the effects of natural resource abundance on the provision of public goods: evidence from peruvian municipalities(2016-12-08) Contreras Medrano, Evelyn EdithAfter decades of research, there is still no consensus in the literature regarding the effects of natural resource abundance on the economic and political performance of a territory. This research aims to contribute to this discussion, by analyzing the role of institutions on explaining the relationship between natural resource-based revenues and the provision of public goods at the local level. In order to do so, I test the mechanisms previously proposed in the literature for explaining the natural resource curse effect at the national level (mediation and moderation effects of institutional quality), using cross-sectional data of Peruvian municipalities located in the Andean highlands, for the 2011-2014 period. The identification strategy proposed uses as source of exogenous variation for revenues, the location of natural resources and its value among the territory, and a set of rules established by law for the redistribution of natural resource-based revenues to the local governments. In order to deal with the endogeneity of institutional quality, I include 2SLS estimations, using the presence of 'Peasant Communities' (Comunidades Campesinas) as an instrumental variable. The results show some evidence of a positive effect of natural resource-based revenues on the provision of local public infrastructure (water, public lightning and rural roads), a null effect on education results, and a negative effect on health campaigns. However, regarding the role of institutional quality on explaining these effects, I find no significant effects for all of the outcomes and samples analyzed.Item The effects of prenatal care on birth outcomes: evidence from Brazil(2023-06-14) Ponte, Marianna Duarte Miele daEmbora a avaliação da adequação do cuidado pré-natal careça de consenso na literatura médica, há evidências sugerindo que a assistência pré-natal contínua desde os estágios iniciais da gravidez desempenha um papel crucial na determinação dos resultados do parto. Esta dissertação examina a relação entre o pré-natal e os resultados de nascimento nas capitais brasileiras usando uma base de dados privada dos Correios, quatro bases de dados do DATASUS/Ministério da Saúde (SINASC, SIH, SIA, and CNES) e um modelo de Variáveis Instrumentais (IV). Aplicando um instrumento de distância, especificamente a distância da rua de residência da mãe até a unidade pública de atendimento pré-natal mais próxima, buscamos abordar questões de endogeneidade relacionadas à escolha do pré-natal pelas mães e examinar o impacto do número de consultas pré-natais nos resultados do parto, como peso ao nascer e idade gestacional. Os resultados indicam uma relação positiva e significante entre a frequência de consultas de pré-natal e o peso ao nascer, de acordo com nossa hipótese principal. As checagens de robustez corroboram os resultados encontrados incorporando recodificação da variável de número de visitas e adição de efeitos fixos de background socioeconômico a nível de CEP de residência da mãe usando a base do Cadastro Único. Esses achados evidenciam o impacto significativo do cuidado pré-natal contínuo nos resultados do nascimento. Ao reconhecer a importância fundamental do cuidado pré-natal adequado, o sistema público de saúde brasileiro pode empenhar-se ainda mais na busca por resultados mais adequados tanto para as mães quanto para seus bebês.Item Ensaios em desenvolvimento e crescimento econômico(2013-06-07) Ribeiro, Felipe GarciaThis thesis consists of three essays, one being on economic development and the two others on economic growth. The first essay is an investigation into how access to electricity by households affects time allocation of children and teenagers from rural Brazil in what regards the choice to attend school or to engage in the labor market. To establish a causal relationship between the availability of electricity and time allocation, we use the criteria of priority works from Luz Para Todos program as a source of exogenous variation in access to electricity of households located in rural Brazil. We apply Regression Discontinuity Design and Difference in Difference estimator with endogenous variables. The results from the latter methodology indicate that the presence of electricity increases the likelihood that children and adolescents are enrolled in school and are not delayed relative to the grade they should be attending at their age. Also, the probability of a child being literate and not being working increases with the presence of electricity. One of the possible channels that could explain these results is the increased participation of mothers in the labor market. However, one cannot discard the hypothesis that the observed results are justified by the increased access to electricity by the schools, making them better and more attractive to students and by the receipt of Bolsa Familia program which is conditional on school attendence by children and teenagers. The second study aims to contribute to the literature on institutions and economic growth through the investigation of how the 1959 socialist revolution in Cuba have affected the trajectory of per capita income in that country. To do so, we apply the synthetic control method to obtain the counterfactual path of income per capita in the absence of such revolution. The results show that the trajectory of the annual GDP per capita of Cuba between 1959 to 1980 was lower than it would have been if the socialist regime had not been implemented. This result is robust to different placebo tests deployed and also to the use of different series of GDP per capita. Alternative hypotheses that could explain the lower path of GDP per capita are discussed based on the existing literature and data. The discussion suggests that institutional change was indeed the cause of the observed negative effect on the Cuban economy during the period of analysis. Finally, the third article investigates the economic cost of a natural disaster in Brazil. The paper looks at the excessive rains that happened in the state of Santa Catarina in November and December 2008. This study contributes with some new evidence to the iv recent literature on natural disasters. To our knowledge, there are no studies in Brazil that empirically measure the impact that a natural disaster has entailed on an affected region. This study is structured in two parts. The first uses synthetic control to measure the impact of rainfall on the industrial production of Santa Catarina. For that, we propose a small accommodation method for treating the effects of possible flooding rains in other states. In the second part, we use the method of difference in difference to measure the impact of the rains on the GDP per capita of the cities. The results show that for a period of two years after the end of 2008, the impact of the rains caused a lower monthly industrial production of 2.0% in Santa Catarina. For municipalities, the estimated effect of the disaster on GDP per capita was around -7.0% in 2008 and -5.0% in 2009. There was not significant effect in 2010.Item The impacts of gendered labor market regulation(2022-03-30) Tenoury, Gabriel NemerInvestigamos os impactos da regulação específica para gênero no mercado de trabalho. Usando dados do Tribunal Regional do Trabalho do Rio de Janeiro (TRT-RJ), dados brasileiros a nível do empregador-empregado, e uma abordagem IV baseada no sorteio aleatório de juízes aos casos, estimamos que as condenações judiciais aumentam a diferença de gênero no volume de emprego nas firmas, com os resultados sendo concentrados em trabalhadores negros, menos instruídos, jovens, com pouco tempo de emprego e em pequenas e médias empresas com maior disparidade de gênero no emprego pré-tratamento. Nossos resultados são robustos a vários testes de robustez e lançam luz sobre as consequências não intencionais da regulação de gênero no mercado de trabalho.Item An inquiry into the macroeconomic environment’s effect on presidential approval ratings(2023-07-26) Rodrigues, Matheus Cabral de OliveiraThis dissertation examines the influence of macroeconomic indicators on presidential approval ratings in Brazil over the period of 1997-2022. Using the Two Stage Least Squares technique of instrumental variables estimation to remove the endogeneity from the domestic macroeconomic indicators, it shows, when controlled by each president’s term and to major political developments on the country, that the output gap, inflation rate, real exchange rate and the terms of trade all have a statistically significant relationship with presidential approval, showing a deep link between the economy and the success of an incumbent.Item Instrumental variables and the sign of the average treatment effect(2018-01) Machado, Cecilia; Shaikh, Azeem M.; Vytlacil, Edward J.This paper considers identification and inference about the sign of the average effect of a binary endogenous regressor (or treatment) on a binary outcome of interest when a binary instrument is available. In this setting, the average effect of the endogenous regressor on the outcome is sometimes referred to as the average treatment effect (ATE). We consider four different sets of assumptions: instrument exogeneity, instrument exogeneity and monotonicity on the outcome equation, instrument exogeneity and onotonicity on the equation for the endogenous regressor, or instrument exogeneity and monotonicity on both the outcome equation and the equation for the endogenous regressor. For each of these sets of conditions, we characterize when (i) the distribution of the observed data is inconsistent with the assumptions and (ii) the distribution of the observed data is consistent with the assumptions and the sign of ATE is identified. A distinguishing feature of our results is that they are stated in terms of a reduced form parameter from the population regression of the outcome on the instrument. In particular, we find that the reduced form parameter being far enough, but not too far, from zero, implies that the distribution of the observed data is consistent with our assumptions and the sign of ATE is identified, while the reduced form parameter being too far from zero implies that the distribution of the observed data is inconsistent with our assumptions. For each set of restrictions, we also develop methods for simultaneous inference about the consistency of the distribution of the observed data with our restrictions and the sign of the ATE when the distribution of the observed data is consistent with our restrictions. We show that our inference procedures are valid uniformly over a large class of possible distributions for the observed data that include distributions where the instrument is arbitrarily “weak.” A novel feature of the methodology is that the null hypotheses involve unions of moment inequalities.Item Peer effects on locus of control(2015-04-29) Chikitani, MaurícioEu analiso o papel que a interação entre pares tem na determinação do Locus de Controle, uma medida de quão pessoalmente responsável as pessoas se sentem com relação a diferentes aspectos de suas vidas. Eu estabeleço identificação através de variação no tamanho do grupo e de variáveis instrumentais baseadas na estrutura de painel dos dados. Eu estudo a questão no contexto escolar, utilizando os dados de alunos no Ensino Fundamental de um município brasileiro, que inclui o questionário de Tel Aviv de Locus de Controle. Minhas estimativas não apresentam sinais de peer effects endógenos ou contextuais.Item Price discovery and market microstructure noise(2019-01-21) Fernandes, Marcelo; Dias, Gustavo Fruet; Scherrer, Cristina MabelUsing a continuous-time price discovery model, we show that the standard econometric framework typically yields inconsistent estimates of the price discovery measures in the presence of market microstructure noise due the usual errors-in-variable problem. We address this issue using instrumental variables. We devise two sets of valid instruments for alternative assumptions on the market microstructure noise, and then establish consistency and asymptotic normality of the corresponding price discovery measures. We illustrate our findings by investigating price discovery for Alcoa, showing that market leadership conclusions depend heavily on whether we account or not for market microstructure noise.Item Unobserved selection heterogeneity and the gender wage gap(Wiley, 2017-12) Machado, CeciliaSelection correction methods usually make assumptions about selection itself. In the case of gender wage gap estimation, those assumptions are especially tenuous because of high female nonparticipation and because selection could be different in different parts of the labor market. This paper proposes an estimator for the wage gap that allows for arbitrary and unobserved heterogeneity in selection. It applies to the subpopulation of always employed women, which is similar to men in labor force characteristics. Using CPS data from 1976 to 2005, I show that the gap has narrowed substantially from a -0.521 to a -0.263 log wage point differential for this population.