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ItemUma análise dos fatores de risco das ações no Brasil entre 2001 e 2022(2022) Wilens, Rogério MolinaFama and French (1992) compared the CAPM and identified that company size and value variables correlated with the expectation of excess return and risk. Along these lines, some international authors have created empirical models to quantify systematic risk other than the CAPM. In this way, Costa Jr. and Neves (2000) and Murakoshi and Brito (2009) found evidence of international findings in the Brazilian market. With this in mind, and assuming Brazil as a country with a possible influence of illiquidity on the returns of the stocks of smaller companies (MURAKOSHI; BRITO, 2009), trying to test for the database from 2001 to 2022 the effects of size, relation book value over market value, long-term interest differential, rates on loans to legal entities and illiquidity, in explaining the expectations of return on Brazilian stocks. Using a methodology similar to Murakoshi and Brito (2009), and estimating using SUR (ZELLNER, 1962), an improvement in explanatory power was noticed when adding size and value premium in the model. In addition, size premiums had mostly significant estimated coefficients, a result that differs from Murakoshi and Brito (2009). Also, analyzing the Covid-19 shock in 2020 stocks returns, capturing a measured systematic risk magnitude reduction, and an alpha capture of this negative return. The impact was greater in smaller companies and lower book valueto-price ratio. ItemLost in participation: how local knowledge was overlooked in land use planning and risk governance in Tōhoku, Japan(Elsevier Ltd, 2016) Oliveira, José Antônio Puppim de; Fra Paleo, UrbanoThis article aims to identify gaps in public participation in land use planning to improve risk governance, using the case of the Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE) in 2011. Overreliance on technical information and on the opinion of experts is occurring side by side along with negligence of local knowledge and lack of effective public participation in decision-making, creating a sense of overconfidence regarding scientific knowledge and new infrastructure's abilities to withstand future disasters. Using the case study method in GEJE, our research identified three main overall gaps in participation. Firstly, a lot of local knowledge from previous experiences was not incorporated into land use plans in the region even after similar events in the past. Secondly, there was technical information that alerted to possible risks for land use in certain areas, but this information did not impede development in risk areas due to lack of effective participation in the land use planning processes. Finally, Japan allows participation in many land use planning process, but some of the most important decisions, such as on the sitting of nuclear plants had little or any local participation. Thus, strengthening public participation in land use by closing those three gaps could improve risk governance and resilience of localities to cope with large natural and technological disasters in the future. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. ItemRe-framing risk transfer to assess integrative partnership opportunities: the S.A.R. approach and the AIG/BID/CNO regional surety bond facility of 2007(2008-09-30) Mckellar Junior, Tem C.The identification, allocation and management of project risks are major concerns to in establishing and administering public-private partnerships (PPP). Consequently managers of public entities, development banks, construction companies and insurers are studying and employing many techniques to address the assessment and management of project risks. Risk transfer is a hallmark of the purported benefits provided by PPP, yet due to contractual and conceptual realities, the public party (the ceding entity) almost always remains the ultimate risk bearer. Consequently, public party retains an enduring interest in the overall management of these ceded risks. This dissertation explores shortcomings of the common approaches to conceptualizing risk management in the context of a PPP. By focusing the concepts of interdependence and mutuality and using the decision to transfer project risk, this dissertation frames the decision to transfer risk in terms of: the interdependent realities of systemic relationships, broadens the technical concepts of risk and risk assessment and considers the reflective use of differences in perspective to analyze the case study. The author explores these concepts in an analysis of decision of a risk manager of the Brazilian construction company Construtora Norberto Odebrecht to design an innovative surety bond facility with the Inter-American Development Bank (BID) and an insurer, the American International Group (AIG), a deal which won recognition as Trade Finance Magazine’s 2007 deal of the year. The author argues that by framing risk transfer in terms of the organization’s systemic disposition, technical assessment and reflective dynamics, one may identify and create more opportunities to engage in successful long-term relationships in ways that current PPP literature does not yet address. The results should provide contributions for future research into project risk transfer, inter-organizational cooperation and potential project partner selection. ItemWelfare analysis of currency regimes with defaultable debts(2013) Araújo, Aloísio Pessoa de; Leon, Márcia Saraiva; Santos, Rafael ChavesWe modify the Cole and Kehoe model by including domestic debt. According to the original model, a speculative attack on a high debt level issued abroad triggers external debt default. Here, it is possible to inflate away the domestic debt to avoid the external debt default. We consider two possibilities for domestic debt denomination: (i) local currency and (ii) common currency. In the second case, inflation depends on a monetary union decision. Our numerical results show that to have a debt share denominated in a common currency is optimal when the refinancing risks are highly correlated across union members. Otherwise, the best is to keep the domestic debt denominated in local currency. Finally, the extreme case of having all debt issued abroad and denominated in a foreign currency is suitable when, under alternative regimes, suboptimal inflation motivated by political factors is likely. Although the paper was originally developed for emerging market economies, it sheds some light on the recent Eurozone crisis. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.