FGV CEPESP - Working Papers


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    Political budget cycles and democratization in Latin America, 1973-2008
    (Centro de Estudos de Política e Economia do Setor Público (CEPESP), 2010) Barberia, Lorena Guadalupe; Avelino Filho, George
    We test for political budget cycles in a panel of eighteen Latin American democracies from 1973 to 2008. Recent studies have argued that the pattern of deficit cycles in a large cross-section of countries is driven by the experience of ‘‘new democracies.” As a large share of the countries that underwent democratization during this period are in Latin America, we seek to verify if these patterns are robust using an updated data set on fiscal expenditures, democratization and elections. Our results suggest that political budget cycles are driven by democratic transitions in Latin America. Our findings are robust to whether objective judgment and observational criteria of democracy and democratic transitions are employed, or measures based on vague and arbitrary operational rules. Furthermore, we show that the deficit cycle in transitional Latin American democracies appears to be driven by lower election-year revenue collection rather than an increase in public expenditures.
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    Economic performance and political coordination in Portugal’s "dry" political system
    (2016-01) Pereira Filho, Carlos Eduardo Ferreira; Singh, Shane P.
    We posit that sound, growth-promoting economic policy is more likely to be formulated when major political players have incentives to cooperate. Using Portugal as an arena to test this theory, we provide an in depth analysis of its policymaking environment, finding that Portuguese institutional arrangements are what we term “dry.” That is, they are not well suited to provide incentives for cooperation among actors in the policymaking process. Portugal has had difficulty sustaining economic growth in the long term. Our arguments are supported with both contextual analyses and a statistical examination, in which we find a strong link between single-party majority government and positive economic and fiscal performance. These findings have broad implications for democratic economies across the world.
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    Ad-valorem tax incidence and after-tax price adjustments: evidence from Brazilian basic basket food
    (Centro de Estudos de Política e Economia do Setor Público (CEPESP), 2010) Politi, Ricardo Batista; Mattos, Enlinson
    We examine price responses to ad-valorem tax changes in the Brazilian food market over the period 1994-2008. In particular, we investigate VAT incidence for ten goods representing basic basket food in 16 states. Our results suggest tax undershifting to retail prices for all goods. However, once tax rates rises and falls are taken into account separately, we also obtain results of tax fullshifting and tax overshifting. We conclude that tax incidence estimative can produce different outcomes depending on the direction of tax rate changes. Finally, our results indicate that food retail price responses to VAT changes are somewhat instantaneous.
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    Legislative organization and executive success rate at the subnational level: a comparison of Brazil and Germany, 1990-2010
    (Centro de Estudos de Política e Economia do Setor Público (CEPESP), 2011) Praça, Sérgio; Weber, Bernd
    How does parliamentary organization affect the legislative success rate of the Executive in presidential and parliamentary systems at the subnational level? Why are some governors much more successful than others even though they share the same basic constitutional designs? Furthermore, why are some governors much more successful than the literature expects? This essay explores these three questions with a comparison of Brazilian and German states from 1990 to 2010.
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    The limited power of information: monitoring and corruption deterrence-evidence from a random-audits program in Brazil
    (2011-05) Lichand, Guilherme Finkelfarb; Lopes, Marcos Felipe Mendes; Medeiros, Marcelo C.
    While corruption is documented to have high social costs, the mechanisms that enable and deter corruption are not entirely understood. This paper takes advantage of the introduction of a random-audits program in Brazil, for which the only practical effect is information disclosure, to assess the effects of monitoring on corruption deterrence: because auditors were entitled to investigate transfers that occurred prior to the time of audit, we are able to compare incumbents’ decisions when they did not know they could be audited with their subsequent decisions, when they knew they had a much higher probability of being exposed. We depart from a simple theoretical model to derive empirically testable predictions, which are contingent upon local constraints and embezzlement opportunities, of the effects of the program on the prevalence of corruption. The results are that corruption dramatically dropped after the program was introduced; nevertheless, the decrease in corruption has not led to higher compliance or better health outcomes. Politicians seem to have adapted, and irregularities have only moved to where it is less straightforward to identify corruption.
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    The impact of public transport expansions on informality: the case of the São Paulo metropolitan region
    (Centro de Estudos de Política e Economia do Setor Público (CEPESP), 2015) Moreno-Monroy, Ana Isabel; Ramos, Frederico Roman
    The São Paulo Metropolitan Region (SPMR) displays a strong core-periphery divide. Central areas concentrate the bulk of formal jobs while peripheral areas display high incidence of informal employment. This pattern is reinforced by a large deficit in urban transport provision. Against this background, we estimate the impact of expansions of the public transport system on local informality rates for the SPMR between 2000 and 2010. We compare the average changes in informality in areas which received new public transport infrastructure with the average changes in areas which were supposed to receive infrastructure according to official plans, but did not because of delays. After controlling for endogenous selection, we find that informality decreased on average 16 percent faster in areas receiving new public transport infrastructure compared to areas that faced project delays.
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    Empirical evidence of the effect of sanitation policies on health indicators for Brazilian municipalities
    (Centro de Estudos de Política e Economia do Setor Público (CEPESP), 2011) Texeira, Lucas; Mattos, Enlinson; Pinto, Cristine Campos de Xavier
    This paper investigates the effects of sanitation policies on health indicators in a panel of Brazilian municipalities. Specifically, we use DataSUS, the IBGE, and the SNIS to assess whether the indicators of sanitation affect the health indicators of mortality and morbidity by age group and by different diseases in the municipalities from 2001 to 2008. We work with different samples due to an unbalanced panel because there are missing data on sanitation in smaller municipalities and for lower income people. The results show that we cannot ignore the importance of sanitation. Our results indicate that for the entire sample, a 1% reduction in the incidence of total coliform implies a decline of 0.12 deaths for children under one year of age, including the neonatal period, for every thousand live births. Regarding hospitalization due to illness, only improvement in access to water and a reduction in total coliforms seem to reduce hospitalization for dysentery (for access to water) and hepatitis and tuberculosis (for total coliforms). Access to sewage services seems to reduce the mortality of children up to four years of age and hospitalizations of children aged five to nine years in poor municipalities. Finally, access to water and sewers appears to reduce hospitalizations due to dysentery and hepatitis in municipalities with an income above the median in Brazil.
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    Measuring corruption: what have we learned?
    (Centro de Estudos de Política e Economia do Setor Público (CEPESP), 2012) Avelino Filho, George; Biderman, Ciro; Lopes, Marcos Felipe Mendes
    There is current a large concern with corruption around the world as it may be one of the causes for lagging development. There is also a concern that corrupt government will succeed to stay in power using the money obtained in corruption activities to finance political campaigns. Consequently, corruption might jeopardize economic development for a long period of time and questions democracy. To test the consequences and causes of corruption we need to measure the phenomenon. Traditional measures rely on perception surveys despite the shortcomings of these measures. Field and natural experiments or even survey experiments are other alternatives to measure the phenomenon. In this paper we review the measures available in the literature and propose an index based on objective information from random audit reports. We show that this index is a tool to analyze municipalities in Brazil and that our index is consistent with expected (stylized) behavior, it is relatively easy to compute, and it is normalized between 0 and 1.
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    The political economy of productivity in Brazil
    (Inter-American Development Bank, 2010-03) Alston, Lee J.; Mueller, Bernardo Pinheiro Machado; Melo, Marcus André B. C. de; Pereira Filho, Carlos Eduardo Ferreira
    This paper explores the link between Brazil’s political institutions and its disappointing productivity and growth in recent decades. Although political institutions provide the president with incentives and the instruments to pursue monetary stability and fiscal discipline they simultaneously raise the costs of achieving those very objectives. The insulation of certain expenditures from presidential discretion necessitates the use of other policy options, such as high taxation levels and cuts in unprotected expenditures, which put a drag on productivity and growth. In a context of robust checks and balances and interest group fragmentation, a state overburdened by constitutional entitlements has resorted to massive increases in taxation. The resulting environment possesses both essential elements for sustainable economic growth and distortions that conspire against its realization. While some improvements in productivity and growth have occurred in the past decade, the pace has been slow and incremental.
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    Capitanias hereditárias e desenvolvimento: herança colonial sobre desigualdade e instituições
    (Centro de Estudos de Política e Economia do Setor Público (CEPESP), 2011) Mattos, Enlinson; Innocentini, Thaís Cristina; Benelli, Yuri
    This paper aims at identifying the effects of historical inequality in the Brazilian municipalities formation on the actual conditions of land and income inequalities and on institutions quality. In particular, we use, latitude, longitude and the foundation date of Capitanias Hereditárias as historical determinants for the actual institutions of Brazilian municipalities. Controlling for area, foundation year, Portugal distance, soil types, average rain, temperature altitude, and socio-economical variables, the results suggest that the main colonial heritage left from Capitanias Hereditárias is large land concentration. This empirical evidence seems to be robust to the inclusion of variables that capture Brazilian sugar cane and gold ciles and State-fixed effects. Moreover, we find ambiguous effect on Brazilian institutions.
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    Local economic development: theory, evidence, and implications for policy in Brazil
    (Centro de Estudos de Política e Economia do Setor Público (CEPESP), 2008) Barberia, Lorena Guadalupe; Biderman, Ciro
    Local economic development policies have surged in Brazil over the past decade—a major shift in this regionally diverse country of 27 states, over 5,000 municipalities, and the largest economy in Latin America. We review the stylized facts, expected patterns and policy recommendations from the foundational studies in regional and urban economics. We then provide a summary of a more recent stream of scholarship focused on local economic development (LED) studies in developed and developing countries that have surged in the last 20 years. Based on this review, we then systemize the findings emerging from studies focused on analyzing local economic development policies in Brazil recognizing the distinctive contributions emerging from both the empirical and the case studies literatures. We identify key lessons for (and from) the Brazilian experience and conclude that Brazil and Latin American countries need a new generation of studies that undertake more rigorous evaluations of these policy experiments. Finally, we recommend steps to advance such research.
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    A provisão pública de ensino superior como mecanismo de seleção por habilidade: evidências para o Brasil
    (2013) Bacalhau, Priscilla Velloso da Silveira; Mattos, Enlinson
    We investigate the aspects related with students segregation between the higher education provided by the public sector and that one which is offered by the private sector. Based on data from the National Household Sample Survey (PNAD/IBGE), we find evidence that an extra year on student's mother education affects positively the likelihood of students joining a public college (by the amount of 0.3 percentage point). Using the method of Oaxaca-Blinder Decomposition for the score on the National Secondary Education Exam (Enem) of the first-year students, we find that only one third of the difference of -0.61 points between students from private and the public sector can be explained by the observable variables, while two-thirds of the difference would be associated with unobservable variables, such as the student’s ability. Thus, Enem’s score, net of the others observable variables, would represent the intrinsic characteristics of the student, including ability. If one uses the Enem's net score as an explanatory variable in the decomposition of score of National Student Performance Exam (Enade) of the undergraduate students, the result is that more than 90% of the gap between sectors could be explained by the observable variables, while the Enem’s score is the main determinant for explaining the score gap.
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    Os salários dos professores públicos são atrativos no Brasil?
    (2008) Moriconi, Gabriela Miranda; Marconi, Nelson
    The relation between teacher wages and their students’ performance is one of the great discussions in economics of education literature. However, international literature converges to the idea that teachers’ relative wages are important to attract good professionals to the teaching career. Given that, this study intends to evaluate the attractiveness of teachers’ wages in public schools. In order to accomplish that, the Oaxaca’s (1973) technique were applied to PNAD’s (National Household Sample Survey) data from 1995 to 2006 to estimate the gaps between public teacher wages and what they would receive if they worked in one of the comparison groups: other jobs in the public sector, teaching in private sector and other jobs in the private sector. In short, there are evidences that public teachers’ wages are more attractive to high school graduates than to college graduates – and the last ones are just the ones that should be attracted –, to women, to workers that live in the states of Tocantins, Rio de Janeiro and Acre, and to workers in the beginning of the career. With these results, we intend to contribute to the development of the teaching career wage policies beyond simple purposes of linear wage raises to all teachers.
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    Education production efficiency: evidence from Brazilian universities
    (Centro de Estudos de Política e Economia do Setor Público (CEPESP), 2009) Rocha, Fabiana; Mattos, Enlinson; Arvate, Paulo Roberto; Zoghbi, Ana Carolina Pereira
    This paper investigates how efficient are the Higher Education Institutions (HEI) in Brazil, and which institution – public or private – is more efficient in the production of knowledge. In addition, it was also verified the determinants of performance of Brazilian students in Higher Education. We estimated a Stochastic Production Function of Education for the Brazilian HEI based on information from the Higher Education Census of 2006 and the National Examination of Performance Evaluation of Student (Enade) of 2007. By using the difference between the scores of first-year and last-year college students of National Examination of Performance Evaluation of Student (Enade) aggregated by HEI as a product in the Stochastic Production Function, it was possible to contribute with a new element to the literature devoted to the estimation of the Production Function of Education. The results show that the characteristics of institutions are the variables that best explain their performance. Additionally, public institutions are more inefficient than private ones.
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    Aumentando a eficácia e a eficiência da avaliação do ensino superior: uma análise do uso do Enem como alternativa ao Enade para ingressantes
    (2009) Zoghbi, Ana Carolina Pereira; Oliva, Bruno Teodoro; Moriconi, Gabriela Miranda
    A aplicação do Enade (Exame Nacional de Avaliação do Desempenho dos Estudantes) para alunos ingressantes trouxe um significativo avanço para a avaliação do ensino superior no país: a possibilidade do cálculo de uma medida de valor agregado do curso, o IDD (Indicador de Diferença entre os Desempenhos Esperado e Observado). Porém, uma proposta para melhoria da avaliação do ensino superior brasileiro seria a utilização dos resultados do Enem (Exame Nacional do Ensino Médio) como baseline para o cálculo do IDD. Haveria um aumento da eficiência devido à não aplicação do Enade para alunos ingressantes, reduzindo custos. Já o aumento da eficácia se daria em razão de se obter um baseline melhor, devido aos fortes incentivos para fazer a prova. Neste estudo, analisou-se a possibilidade de se utilizar os resultados do Enem como alternativa aos resultados do Enade dos ingressantes para o cálculo do IDD dos cursos. Ao calcularmos um novo IDD substituindo a nota do Enade dos alunos ingressantes pela nota do Enem esses mesmos alunos, obtivemos correlações entre esse novo IDD e o IDD calculado tradicionalmente de cerca de 0,75, indicando que não haveria uma mudança muito significativa na ordenação da nota dos indivíduos, o que viabilizaria essa substituição.
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    Articulação intrapartidária e desempenho eleitoral no Brasil
    (Centro de Estudos de Política e Economia do Setor Público (CEPESP), 2012) Avelino Filho, George; Biderman, Ciro; Barone, Leonardo Sangali
    We address the issue of whether electing a mayor affects the same party performance at subsequent proportional elections in the same municipality. We employ a Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) model to identify the causal effect of elected mayors over their party performance in elections for federal and state representatives. RDD allows us to compare municipalities where a party has barely won to municipalities where the same party has barely lost. These two municipalities can be considered as an estimate of the counterfactual for each other, as the definition of winning candidates is related to the slight random variation in party vote shares due to weather or other exogenous causes. Our results suggest electing a mayor (even with a 1% margin) increases votes for the same party for both federal and state representatives. We interpret this result as evidence of party integration, as elected mayors would work systematically to favor their own party candidates in subsequent proportional elections.
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    Perspectiva dinâmica na análise da estrutura espacial urbana em cidades de rápido crescimento no Pará
    (Centro de Estudos de Política e Economia do Setor Público (CEPESP), 2014) Ramos, Frederico Roman
    Este ensaio tem como objetivo compreender de que forma as estruturas espaciais das cidades de Marabá e Santarém vêm se desenvolvendo sob o enfoque de suas características de expansão urbana. Propomos a adoção de um referencial teórico baseado em uma perspectiva dinâmica onde a renda da terra é influenciada pela expectativa de retorno como um prêmio pelo crescimento gerando pressões para conversão de terras em áreas urbanas nas franjas das cidades. Através de uma metodologia inovadora baseada em processamento de imagens multitemporais de satélite, desenvolvemos métricas de expansão urbana como estratégia de análise empírica sobre esses processos no contexto amazônico.
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    A geografia do voto nas eleições paulistas: medidas e aplicações
    (2011) Avelino Filho, George; Biderman, Ciro; Silva, Glauco Peres da
    Este artigo discute as medidas de concentração geográfica dos votos propostas pela literatura e propõe uma nova medida, estimada para as eleições para deputado federal no Estado de São Paulo nos últimos 5 pleitos (1994-2010). Estas estimativas mostram a estratégia de concentração de votos entre os eleitos é menos frequente do que o esperado pela literatura e, quando adotada, tende a ter um perfil mais regional que municipal. Finalmente, a evolução dessa medida ao longo do tempo sugere comportamento sem tendências claras.
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    Carga fiscal e incidência de ICMS: uma análise empírica em painel de dados
    (Centro de Estudos de Política e Economia do Setor Público (CEPESP), 2011) Mattos, Enlinson
    The main purpose of this paper is to estimate the tax burden of 12 commodities in Brazil. We collect data of tax rate changes on sales tax (ICMS) and tax inclusive prices. Based on this data, econometric methodology is applied based on Carbonnier (2007) to the Brazilian market. Panel data includes information about 7 commodities from basic basket food in 16 cities and about 5 other commodities in 11 cities from July 1994 to June 2008. Estimated results suggest that tax burden on consumer relies on between 7% and 75% to these commodities and the firms hold a share of the tax burden on sales tax. These findings suggest that sales tax rate changes affect commodities prices in different magnitudes (in this case they are under- shifted).