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    Brazil and the international trade in semiconductors: a first assessment
    (2023-12-21) Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão
    É bem sabido que o design e a produção de semicondutores estão concentrados nos EUA e Ásia, juntamente com nichos europeus específicos. Mas os semicondutores são uma necessidade mundial e outros países deveriam pelo menos envolver-se no seu nexo de produção, mesmo que não no topo ou não visando uma autossuficiência impossível. Flores (2023) promete maior atenção a esta questão no Brasil, onde, dada canais comerciais do país, o comércio internacional poderia funcionar tanto como um incentivo quanto como um provedor de fundos pelo menos modesto para os desenvolvimentos necessários. Para apoiar este ponto, uma análise mais profunda no entanto, é necessário conhecimento dos fluxos internacionais. Este Resumo é uma primeira tentativa de preencher esta lacuna. Não pretende ser um análise abrangente do mercado internacional sobre como o Brasil se posiciona no mundo dos chips’ troca. No entanto, revela algumas realidades que apoiam a visão de que mais esforços são necessários necessária para reverter uma dependência actual que pode tornar-se numa grave deficiência num futuro não muito distante. Os dados do Comtrade da ONU são usados ​​principalmente aqui; embora não sejam a fonte ideal para determinadas análises, uma primeira avaliação através delas é inevitável. A seção a seguir discute questões de classificação e descreve como se poderia avaliar o mercado, usando dados comerciais. Este último deve ser tomado como uma breve digressão. A seção 3 apresenta resultados até 2022, divididos nas linhas de investigação anteriormente discutido. Uma seção final conclui.
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    Mercosul: look at Paraguay
    (2023-11-21) Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão
    Usando estatísticas e índices simples, este Resumo lança uma nova luz sobre o comércio recente desenvolvimentos no MERCOSUL. Os quatro membros originais são analisados ​​por diferentes medidas para avaliar os fluxos comerciais e o resultado global não é muito encorajador. O desempenho, segundo as dimensões medidas, empobreceu, com membros mostrando uma tendência decrescente e negativa, em muitos casos. A exceção é o Paraguai, uma economia normalmente esquecida, que dá sinais de estar a recolher os resultados de políticas inteligentes (ou pura sorte?). A sua tendência é oposta à dos outros três membros, sinalizando que –no que diz respeito ao comércio- o país está subindo na escala para se tornar mais competitivo e diversificado como exportador.
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    A adesão do Brasil à OCDE em uma realidade multipolar
    (Konrad Adenauer Stifftung, 2022-11-29) Neves, Leonardo Paz
    O debate no entorno da adesão ou não do Brasil à OCDE denota que ainda não há consenso em relação ao movimento. Não obstante, os esforços dos últimos dois governos colocaram o país na rota para a adesão. Nesse sentido, o mais importante nesse momento seria mudar o foco do debate entre aderir ou não à organização para como internalizar o máximo possível os benefícios de fazer parte da OCDE. O presente texto busca fazer um breve apanhado das duas posições em questão e tentar sinalizar algumas perspectivas para uma base mínima de consenso acerca da adesão do Brasil à OCDE.
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    Advancing trade governance: only for democracies?
    (25-04-2022) Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão
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    Post Covid-19 Economic Recovery: is there a sustainable alternative?
    (2021-07) Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão
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    Smart Europe
    (2021-12) Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão
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    The China-US Trade War: When Will it End?
    (2021-11) Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão
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    Monitoring the return to normality in six European countries IV: the persistence of a fat tail
    (2020-06) Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão
    During the end-week of this Note, France, once again, changed completely its original data, especially the daily new cases information. As a result, analysis of the new cases’ ratios has been completely disturbed, while the last results display very high values, probably meaningless, making it impossible to say something about the decline of the epidemic. Revisions had already occurred1, as well as with the daily deaths statistics, recently plagued with outliers and negative values.
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    Monitoring the return to normality in six European countries III: data problems continue, progress slow-walks
    (2020-06) Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão
    It seems that, with a milder behaviour of the epidemic, and a generalised perception that things are getting better, governments in all six countries at stake -Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal and Spain- have decided to look closer at their statistics. That ‘new daily cases’ was greatly underreported is widely known, so the peaks and troughs that suddenly started to appear, though understandable and largely due to the encompassing testing policy that has (finally) been implemented, jeopardise analyses that have been using this statistic. Even so, the filtering process we’ve adopted succeeds, to some extent, to attenuate the negative outcomes revisions including new entrants -due to the testing results- have introduced in the series.
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    Monitoring the return to normality in six European countries II: the standstill persists
    (2020-05) Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão
    In the six European countries at stake -Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal and Spain- though no negative outcomes up to the last week considered in this Note took place, none or rather very slow progress has been seen as regards the decline of the structural dynamics of the epidemic. Repeating what has been said in the previous Monitoring: the epidemic will linger on for a few months, and vigilance must be on. We continue to characterise this moment as a standstill; now even as regards the number of new daily deaths in some countries, with figures oscillating around a flat trend. Also as said one week ago, the path to herd immunity seems long and winding: care must not be relaxed, economic activities must of course resume -with due precautions, and the aggressive testing policy conducted by most of the countries must proceed, to give ever better measures of the amount of infected people in each country.
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    Monitoring the return to normality in six European countries I: a standstill with positive signs
    (2020-05-20) Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão
    The beginning of a normal life, duly anchored by cautionary measures regarding displacements and social behaviour in public places, in most of the six European countries at stake -Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal and Spain- has presented no negative outcomes up to the last week considered in this Note. However, none or rather very slow progress has been seen as regards the decline of the structural dynamics of the epidemic, signalling that it will linger on for quite a few months, and vigilance must be on.
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    The 19th week effect: prospects for flexibilization in six European countries
    (2020-05-07) Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão
    In this Note we examine the situation in six EU countries -Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal and Spain- just before the beginning of the 19th week, and further validate two proposals -put forward in Flôres (2020)1- for monitoring statistics to be used during the flexibilization period. They refer to the ratios of new daily cases, discussed in section 2, and to simple regressions using recent data on daily deaths, discussed in section 3. All data come from the worldometers.info public site.
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    The world corona changed: preliminary thoughts on the coming world order
    (2020-05-04) Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão
    This Note draws a few lines of force that may indicate how, once the pandemic is moderately under control, world order and security will re-orient themselves.
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    Corona data analyses: looking for signs of recovery in Italy and Spain
    (FGV IIU, 2020) Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão
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    Sustainability callenges in the power sector: Brazil and the Iberian Peninsula
    (FGV IIU, 2020) Pimentel, Ruderico Ferraz; Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão
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    Corona-numbers & policies: some reflections
    (FGV IIU, 2020-03) Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão
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    Looking at the EU from the outside: praise, paradoxes and perplexities
    (2019-11) Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão
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    The future of (non-)global governance
    (2017) Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão
    The title of this paper sounds preposterous, and indeed is. There are many reasons for this qualification and, pre-empting criticisms, I mention three main ones. The first is that any exercise in futurology bears a touch of ridicule or naiveté. As my savvy econometrics teacher used to say in his forecasting lectures (a long time ago, in rainy London): in difficult and very visible situations, a good strategy is to stress the worst outcomes. In case they do not occur, everybody will be happy with the better results and not blame you too much. If they do take place, you will be considered a bold forecaster who did not hesitate to announce the bad prospects. I warn that, despite my conclusions cannot be considered optimistic, I do not have used this strategy here. The second is that Global Governance (GG) has nowadays so many and oftentimes unsuspected forms of influence and control that statements on the future architecture of such a complex system – or rather, network – may easily lack credibility. My excuse in this case is that I outline basic trends, with one clear outcome. I, and probably anyone, am of course unable to predict what Gestalt will the couple COP – Conference of the Parties and its scientific arm, the IPCC - International Panel on Climate Change, assume twenty years from now, or how specific world economic managing and regulation institutions, or those dealing with other realms of international interaction, like air and maritime transportation, or legal regimes for the space, the electro-magnetic spectrum and the web galaxy will be, though, from my predicted global outcome, one could broadly speculate on their fate, when a significant number of them will be more regionalised or even fragmented. Thirdly, in a world where not only events, but black swans and the crossing of tipping points are becoming monthly, or even weakly events, a given sequence of those may completely change environmental conditions and turn the most careful forecasting exercise into useless rhetoric. This is perhaps the most difficult point and I here resort to modellers’ great logic excuse which is the ceteris paribus assumption
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    A sustainable CSR instrument for the Brazilian mining sector
    (NPII, 2017) Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão
    We develop a double proposal: a shift in the COP* efforts and output coupled with a deeper and more effective incorporation of the sustainability dimension in CSR. The mining sector in Brazil is the testing field for this endeavour, through specially designed corporate codes of conduct for the sector. The shift amounts to giving room to bottom-up agreements in which the Conference would exert a co-ordinating role, the measures being meaningless without the full engagement of the related actors. The codes of conduct follow a flexible and customised structure for answering sustainability demands. The methodology can be applied to a variety of significant groups of actors and situations; it can also be a factor for enlarging the scope of CSR instruments, bringing, at the side of traditional dimensions like labour and concerns for the communities involved, an explicit sustainability dimension. The approach can be spread to other countries and partners, enlarging its positive externalities and providing grounds for improvements and complements. * Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
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    Emerging powers and global governance
    (2017-10) Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão
    This paper highlights and discusses three riddles inherent to emerging countries’ attitudes towards the existing Global Governance (GG) network. The riddles address, respectively, a contradiction related to the decaying aspect of the order, a lack of perception about the shifting centre of world power and the heterogenous views emerging countries hold on many key GG instances. An additional section elaborates on the influences of the disparities within the far from homogenous ‘emerging countries group’, singling out the main role China has been and will continue to play. It also compares their attempts with one of the main lines of reform debated since the first period of the French Revolution, by introducing the idea of The Saint-Just Curse. The three riddles place great uncertainty on the true meaning and efficacy of the efforts by emerging countries at changing or transforming the existing GG. Moreover, the disturbance to the previous statements, due to the presence of the unique emerging group actor which is China, further complicates the analysis. Finally, a common feature of all attempts, The Saint Just Curse, signals a lack of creativity by the group. Summing up, under the light of the arguments here developed, it is not at all sure that the needed re-shaping of the present GG will be a major outcome of the emerging countries international role.