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    Universal Basic Income in Developing Countries: Pitfalls and Alternatives
    (Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV, 2021-02-23) Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti; Peruffo, Marcel Cortes; Cordeiro Valério, André
    This article studies the short -and long-term effects of Universal Basic Income programs - a uniform transfer to every individual in society - in the context of a developing economy and compares this policy with other schemes that condition the transfer on household characteristics such as income and education. We construct a dynastic heterogeneous-agent model, featuring uninsurable idiosyncratic risk, investment in physical and human capital, and choice of labor effort. We calibrate the model to Brazilian data and introduce a UBI transfer equivalent to roughly 4.5% of average household income. We find that, over the short run, this policy alleviates poverty and increases welfare, especially for the poor. Over time, however, income falls and poverty and inequality increase as fewer people stay in school, labor supply decreases, and savings fall. We then explore the consequences of an equivalent transfer that is both subject to means testing and requires recipients to enroll their children in school. This policy outperforms the UBI in several dimensions, increasing overall income, reducing poverty and inequality, and improving welfare. This result is robust to varying the magnitude of the cash transfer. We then investigate which aspects of the CCT make it so effective, and find that the schooling conditionality is crucial in ensuring its long- and even short- run success.
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    Radical technological innovation and organizational change: the institutionalization of resilient organizations and substantive forms of work
    (2019) Vasconcelos, Isabella Freitas Gouveia; Irigaray, Hélio Arthur; Leal, Fabiana Braga; Carvalho, Leonardo Araujo de
    This dossier-article presents a reflection on the institutionalization of resilient organizations. It assumes that organizational change is the reinvention of a new system of rules and norms to encourage new behavior and coexistence, as well as necessary forms of negotiation. The organizational change results in the collaboration of the individuals in the institution and the implementation of new technological solutions. This study is dedicated to the thematic issue “Innovation in Emerging Economy Organizations,” and its objective is aligned with the purpose expressed by the issue’s guest editors Bernardes, Borini and Figueiredo (2019), i.e., to promote the establishment of a critical research agenda on the field of innovation and organizations strategy in emerging economies, discussing its implications for the Brazilian academy. An introduction to the study of Technological Innovation in Scientific Communication is presented encompassing scientific research, scientific publications. and digital technologyt
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    Real Estate Market in Developing Countries: Slums and Housing Supply
    (2020-06) Guedes, Ricardo Brito; Iachan, Felipe Saraiva; Sant'Anna, Marcelo
    We study real estate markets where squatting is tolerated by authorities and a dual (formal and informal) housing market emerge. We develop a housing supply model in which geographical constraints and squatting play distinct roles on the housing supply curve. We estimate supply curves for more than 90 metropolitan areas using satellite data that maps steep-sloped terrain and bodies of water, a comprehensive slum survey, and census data of more than 600 municipalities. We find that illegal settlements are more important to explain the cross-sectional variation in supply elasticities than geographical constraints. As an illustrative application, estimated supply elasticities are used to forecast future housing prices increase due to natural population growth.
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    A atividade normativa dos órgãos reguladores das águas
    (2019-08) Santos, Bianca Borges Medeiros
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    OCDE e os códigos de capitais e intangíveis: código de liberalização de movimento de capitais e código de operações correntes intangíveis
    (2019-04) Thorstensen, Vera Helena; Gullo, Marcelly Fuzaro
    Após ter iniciado sua aproximação com as atividades da OCDE na década de 90, o Brasil apresentou pedido oficial de acessão à organização em maio de 2017. Desde então, busca adequar-se e aderir aos instrumentos legais da OCDE, dentre os quais, os Códigos de Liberalização de Movimentos de Capitais e de Operações Correntes Intangíveis. O presente estudo examina o conteúdo geral dos Códigos, objetivos, princípios e funcionamento. Ao mesmo tempo que estabelecem compromissos de liberalização, os Códigos também estabelecem mecanismos para que a liberalização ocorra de forma gradual e progressiva, respeitando as necessidades dos países. Deste modo, ao aderir aos Códigos, o Brasil reforçará sua posição como país compromissado com as regras internacionais e terá assegurado que a liberalização dos itens ocorra de forma gradual, conforme as necessidades nacionais. O Anexo I apresenta o mapeamento das reservas já apresentadas por todos os aderentes aos Códigos. O Anexo II apresenta uma tabela comparativa com os conteúdos dos dois Códigos, para facilitar a leitura e compreensão conjunta.
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    Estimating effects of Haitian immigration on the Brazilian labor market
    (2018) Oliveira, Wagner
    This article aims to study the effects of the recent Haitian immigration to Brazil on labor market outcomes of natives such as mean wage and net formal admissions, where the municipalities are the units of analysis. Due to its inherent natural experiment characteristic, the identification strategy for the event is a comparative interrupted time series design, where the comparison group is obtained with a nearest-neighbor matching using a propensity score procedure. We used mainly data from formal labor registries provided by the Brazilian Ministry of Labor, also combined with IBGE’s sources to obtain the covariates for the propensity score estimation. After controlling the bias, we find no evidence that the Haitian immigration had an impact (either positive or negative) in the labor market outcomes of natives. The article is part of FGV/DAPP’s project called "An assessment of the potential impacts of the new migration flows in Brazil".
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    Urban vulnerability from the other side of the street
    (2017) Spink, Peter
    The focus of the São Paulo based M’Boi urban research field station is on the micro level impacts of social, urban and institutional vulnerabilities present in big cities and multi-city conurbations that are aggravated by: precarious processes of high density land occupation and habitation deficit; changes in patterns for sustaining livelihoods; failures in the distribution of basic services and local consequences of global patterns of climate change. Through consolidating links with community, social and faith based territorial organizations and taking part in their multiple forums, we have seen the importance of an alternative analytic approach to much of the current street level analyses which tend to favour the policy role of the public sector actor. From the “other side of the street” the picture is one of disconnection and absence where community based organizations have sought to reply to everyday demands not only through advocacy and mobilization, but also through direct and collective service provision. Concern may at times be about what government doesn’t do, or should do, or does badly, but it is also about invisible cities and absent states. This has led to us to give more attention to a public action framework with multiple and at times conflicting and disconnected languages that involves not only the actions of governments for citizens, but also the actions of society to both pressure government and to act directly in response to public needs.
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    Perspectivas da agroecologia nas cidades: experiências da Agricultura Urbana na região do M’Boi Mirim da cidade de São Paulo
    (2017) Souza, Zilma Borges de; Oliveira, Lya Cynthia Porto de; Lima, Emma Cunha; Queiroga, Fábio Bruno; Rodrigues, Joyce
    O trabalho apresenta resultados da pesquisa de Agricultura Urbana no projeto “Estação de Pesquisa M’Boi Mirim”, que tem como escopo vulnerabilidades de base territorial e envolve uma equipe interdisciplinar de três universidades. A pesquisa analisa o desenvolvimento da agricultura urbana no Jardim Ângela e no Jardim São Luís, região do M’Boi Mirim, Zona Sul de São Paulo, suas funções no território, práticas sociais e de geração de renda. O objetivo central é o de mapear as iniciativas existentes e prospectar oportunidades de indução complementar de ações para o uso dos diversos espaços privados e coletivos na produção de alimentos de base agroecológica na região.
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    Desvelando o mito da transparência nas democracias
    (2016) Rodrigues, Karina Furtado
    Será o conceito de transparência tão intrínseco ao de democracia como boa parte da literatura sugere? Como falar de transparência em democracias que, legitimamente, geram opacidade? Este artigo se propõe desenvolver uma visão abrangente de transparência, levando em conta suas direções, variedades, e formas de identificação. A premissa básica é de que, em uma democracia, as leis que regulamentam transparência (ou a falta dela) vem de um pacto, e para que este pacto seja considerado democrático, ele tem de ser público. Por conseguinte, transparência nas democracias não se trataria necessariamente da transparência dos dados em si, mas da publicidade e clareza dos processos que levam à disponibilização ou restrição de acesso de uma informação. Na construção conceitual, levou-se em conta extensa literatura sobre conceptualização nas ciências sociais, através dos trabalhos de Sartori, Adcock e Collier, e Goertz. Como resultado, tem-se o conceito de transparência pactuada, do qual emergem quatro subtipos distintos de transparência nas democracias: a transparência efetiva, a transparência nominal, a transparência restrita à necessidade de saber e a transparência sobre a opacidade.
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    O que faz a vida ser melhor? Os determinantes do Bem-Estar subjetivo: Evidências da Sondagem do Bem-estar no Brasil
    (2017) Bittencourt, Viviane Seda; Campelo Junior, Aloísio; Gomes, João Renato Leripio
    Este trabalho procura identificar os determinantes do bem-estar subjetivo dos brasileiros a partir da base de dados da Sondagem do Bem-Estar, pesquisa realizada pela FGV IBRE em 2016. A partir de variáveis selecionadas através de três métodos distintos, foram testadas diferentes especificações ajustadas via OLS e Logit ordenado tendo como variável dependente uma medida de satisfação com a vida. Os resultados sugerem que tanto variáveis de natureza objetiva (renda, desemprego) quanto subjetiva são relevantes para explicar a satisfação dos indivíduos com a vida e que a inclusão destas últimas melhora o fit dos modelos.
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    On the robustness of the principal volatility components
    (2018-03) Trucíos Maza, Carlos César; Hotta, Luiz Koodi; Pereira, Pedro L. Valls
    In this paper, we analyse the recent principal volatility components analysis procedure. The procedure overcomes several diculties in modelling and forecasting the conditional covariance matrix in large dimensions arising from the curse of dimensionality. We show that outliers have a devastating e↵ect on the construction of the principal volatility components and on the forecast of the conditional covariance matrix and consequently in economic and financial applications based on this forecast. We propose a robust procedure and analyse its finite sample properties by means of Monte Carlo experiments and also illustrate it using empirical data. The robust procedure outperforms the classical method in simulated and empirical data.
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    Individuals neglect the informational role of prices: evidence from the stock market
    (2018-02) Chague, Fernando Daniel; Bueno, Rodrigo de Losso da Silveira; Giovannetti, Bruno Cara
    We find that a stock price fall in itself induces individual investors to buy the stock. That is, individuals neglect the negative information that may be attached to a stock price fall. Our identification strategy uses two distinct events which generate fictitious price falls. The first is the mechanical stock price adjustment on ex-dividend dates. The second explores the so-called left-digit effect, the well-documented empirical fact that individuals disproportionally focus on left digits when evaluating numbers. Our results contribute to the understanding of why people trade.
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    Centralized admission and the student-college match
    (2017) Machado, Cecilia; Szerman, Christiane
    Decentralized assignments in the education market have been increasingly replaced by centralized ones. However, empirical evidence on these transitions is scarce. This paper examines the adoption of centralized admissions in the Brazilian higher education market. Using rich administrative data, we exploit time variation in the adoption of a clearinghouse across institutions to investigate the impacts on student sorting, migration, and enrollment. We find that institutions under the centralized assignment are able to attract students with substantially higher test scores and that geographical mobility of admitted students increases. While there are no sizable effects on final enrollment rates, the higher turnover rate of seats indicates the search is intensified. Overall, our findings indicate positive impacts of centralization on the college market
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    The aftermath of 2008 turmoil on Brazilian economy: Tsunami or “Marolinha”?
    (2017) Marçal, Emerson Fernandes; Cunha, Ronan; Merlin, Giovanni Tondin; Simões, Oscar
    Financial events in 2008 had global impacts. We test whether U.S downturn had an impact on Brazilian economic activity and if it was unusual. We run policy ineffectiveness test (Pesaran and Smith [2014, 2016]) and Chow test. The rejection of the null hypothesis in the first test shows that financial events had impacts on Brazilian economy whereas rejection in the second is an evidence of contagion. Our estimates suggest that Brazilian industrial production dropped -9.34% at annual rate basis from December 2007 till June 2009 compared to a scenario of no effect and -6,34% when compared to a scenario of no contagion.
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    Interval observer for uncertain time-varying SIR-SI model of vector-borne disease
    (EMAp, 2017) Aronna, Maria Soledad; Bliman, Pierre-Alexandre
    The issue of state estimation is considered for an SIR-SI model describing a vector-borne disease such as dengue fever, with seasonal variations and uncertainties in the transmission rates. Assuming continuous measurement of the number of new infectives in the host population per unit time, a class of interval observers with estimate-dependent gain is constructed, and asymptotic error bounds are provided. The synthesis method is based on the search for a common linear Lyapunov function for monotone systems representing the evolution of the estimation errors.
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    Ensuring successful introduction of Wolbachia in natural populations of Aedes aegypti by means of feedback control
    (EMAp, 2015-03-19) Bliman, Pierre-Alexandre; Aronna, Maria Soledad; Coelho, Flávio Codeço; Silva, Moacyr Alvim Horta Barbosa da
    The control of the spread of dengue fever by introduction of the intracellular parasitic bacterium Wolbachia in populations of the vector Aedes aegypti, is presently one of the most promising tools for eliminating dengue, in the absence of an efficient vaccine. The success of this operation requires locally careful planning to determine the adequate number of individuals carrying the wolbachia parasite that need to be introduced into the natural population. The introduced mosquitoes are expected to eventually replace the Wolbachia-free population and guarantee permanent protection against the transmission of dengue to human. In this study, we propose and analyze a model describing the fundamental aspects of the competition between mosquitoes carrying Wolbachia and mosquitoes free of the parasite. We then use feedback control techniques to devise an introduction protocol which is proved to guarantee that the population converges to a stable equilibrium where the totality of mosquitoes carry Wolbachia.
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    Decisão sob ignorância e disclosure de produto implicações na compra de seguros
    (EAESP - Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo, 2015) Mendes-da-Silva, Wesley; Gattaz, Cristiane Chaves; Gibson, David V.
    O tema da escolha sob risco tem sido estudado a partir da premissa de que os tomadores de decisão são plenamente informados. Contudo, em situações da vida real, frequentemente os indivíduos necessitam fazer escolhas sem que estejam suficientemente munidos de informações essenciais ao julgamento. Assim, esta pesquisa concentra-se na análise da decisão sob as condições de ausência de informações acerca de probabilidades de perda e dos potenciais impactos, contexto de ignorância, alternativamente à escolha sob risco ou incerteza. Com base em dados coletados em dois experimentos acerca da propensão a adquirir garantia estendida de eletroeletrônicos, dos quais participaram mais de 130 pessoas, os resultados sugerem que o custo de reparo e a probabilidade de quebra do equipamento aumentam a propensão a adquirir seguros de garantia estendida. Em adição, a ausência de informação econômica – disclosure deficiente – torna o custo do seguro algo relevante ao consumidor, e negativamente associado à propensão de adquirir o seguro.
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    Regulação e concorrência no transporte ferroviário brasileiro: o novo modelo proposto para o setor
    (Direito Rio - Escola de Direito do Rio de Janeiro, 2014) Sampaio, Patrícia Regina Pinheiro; Daychoum, Mariam Tchepurnaya
    Este estudo aborda, à luz da teoria econômica e jurídica, o modelo institucional do transporte ferroviário de cargas no Brasil, no que concerne às formas de concorrência intramodal adotadas pela regulação setorial. Atualmente prima-se pelo tráfego mútuo como regra e o direito de passagem de forma subsidiária. Há um movimento em curso em direção à desverticalização do sistema. Dessa forma, o trabalho discute o atual estágio do modelo de segmentação setorial proposto pelo governo federal brasileiro, apresentando algumas considerações críticas.