Premiação top 5: estudo de um caso de torneio no Brasil

Tsuchida, Marcos H.
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After implementing the inflation-targeting framework, the Brazilian Central Bank has developed a survey of market forecasts for inflation and other macroeconomic variables as a tool to guide the monetary policy. The ranking of the top 5 forecasts among the ones in the survey has been published monthly since 2001. This paper analyses the prize structure of the Top 5 ranking as an incentive mechanism to (i) obtain updated market forecasts and (ii) stimulate the organizations and analysts to improve their forecasts. The analysis is based on the existing literature about tournaments and on information available about the survey and the Top 5 ranking. There is evidence suggesting that participants of the survey are heterogeneous in ability or in the level of effort chosen.

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