Prospective scenarios for offshore private banking firms serving Brazilians in 2040
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The offshore Private banking industry for Brazilians has long been dominated by the traditional large international firms. However, recently large Brazilian banks and other independent firms entered this market as well, with the competition increasing in the past few years. Given the uncertainty of the business environment, this work’s objective is to explore potential future scenarios for the offshore Private Banking industry serving Brazilian individuals. In order to address this objective, the research employs the Prospective Scenarios approach, including a Delphi panel with industry’s experts, reaching key issues, predetermined elements and diving forces within the industry. After two rounds of interviews, the research arrives at a consensus among the participants regarding two driving forces for the Offshore Private Banking Industry: Regulation and the Educational challenge. Using these two driving forces, the work builds four prospective scenarios for 2040: The Sky is the limit; Swimming against the Tide; The Dark Ages; and Too much openness misses the optimal point. Despite not being a prediction of the future, the research concludes that PB firms should closely monitor the main regulations that can impact their business, to help them navigate through the Brazilian and offshore investments regulatory frameworks. In addition, in order for the business to reach its full potential, the offshore PB firms should invest in educating potential investors in Brazil, especially the rising affluent segment and the millennials demographic group, leveraging all the technological resources at the PB firms’ disposal.