Investigação acerca dos fatores determinantes da redução da criminalidade no estado de São Paulo

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Balassiano, Moisés
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Between 1999 and 2007, the state of São Paulo has witnessed a 63% drop in homicide rates, which represents a case of success comparable to that of New York, which managed to reduce the homicide rate by 66% in seven years. In this context, this study investigates the factors that may have contributed to the drop in crime in São Paulo. To achieve this, it was used a structural equation model in order to check whether there was a significant relationship between the number of murders and spending on public security, stock of weapons, per capita GDP and employment in the cities of São Paulo with population bigger than 100 thousand inhabitants. It was found a significant and positive relationship between the storage of weapons and the number of homicides, which goes together with the theory put forward here that the disarmament campaign had an important role in reducing the crime rates in São Paulo.

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