Chinese economic statecraft in Brazil: divergence analysis of chinese investments, loans, & trade projects

Casarões, Guilherme Stolle Paixão e
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This research paper examines the evolving relationship between China and Brazil for the purpose of evaluating and identifying certain divergent characteristics of the Sino-Brazilian strategy compared to other countries in Latin America. In order to do so, the evolution of three macroeconomic mechanisms of economic statecraft – investment, financing, and trade – is analyzed to assess the magnitude and nature of Chinese involvement in the Brazilian economy, exploring dependency relationships in politico-economic theory and comparing these mechanisms to Chinese economic leverage models in other consequential countries and regions of the world. The scope covers key events from 2004 to 2023 pertaining to nascent Sino-Brazil relations and explores the symbiotic nature of the China-Brazil partnership, highlighting differences in Chinese regional and national strategies. With regards to financing strategy, we find that Brazil's loan structure differs significantly from other countries in South America, with lower interest rates, favorable repayment terms, and a lower debt-to-GDP ratio; for investment, C-FDI 1 in Brazil reflects moderately higher diversification and efficiency-seeking strategies; and ultimately, analyses of trade flows reveal that while growth is considerable, trends are consistent with other continental economies and reorients Brazilian exports to primarily resource-producing activities. The methodology utilized throughout the paper that combines multidisciplinary axes of political and economic analyses, as well as financial data to examine the strategies and peculiarities of Chinese intervention in the Brazilian context. The empirical analysis will utilize data on debt financing, FDI, and trade volumes to quantify the impact of these mechanisms on the Brazilian economy. Overall, the study aims to provide insights into the nature of Chinese involvement and its implications for Brazil's development trajectory.

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