Gestão estratégica de riscos de um ativo de produção de petróleo: uma abordagem quantitativa

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Barbedo, Cláudio Henrique
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This dissertation proposes a quantitative risk management framework for an oil producing asset, focusing on the CFaR and on the likelihood of a less-than-expected return on capital. A simple cashflow model was used, and the operational revenues were forecasted using a operational loss function on the volume side, and for the price forecast it was used a geometric brownian motion without mean reversion and with a time-varying volatility based on a GARCH model. The results show that the proposed framework can provide relevant information to support risk management of oil producing assets since it helps to quantify the importance of different risk factors underlying the operation’s cash flow and therefore its financial results. Lastly, further development in this subject might include a multi-asset operation with a dependence structure among diferent producing systems and with financial, human and equipments constraints.

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