Ensaios sobre ciclos de negócios
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The purpose of this article is to propose and evaluate forecasting models for the Brazilian industrial GDP. Most models are based on vector auto-regressions (VARs) or on restricted VARs, but models on the ARMA class are also entertained. We used many forecasting models and also combinations of these models. The use of cointegration vectors improves substantially the forecast performance of industrial GDP. Furthermore, in general, combining models out-performed individual models, even when the performance of the later was acceptable.