An inquiry into the macroeconomic environment’s effect on presidential approval ratings

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Muinhos, Marcelo Kfoury
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This dissertation examines the influence of macroeconomic indicators on presidential approval ratings in Brazil over the period of 1997-2022. Using the Two Stage Least Squares technique of instrumental variables estimation to remove the endogeneity from the domestic macroeconomic indicators, it shows, when controlled by each president’s term and to major political developments on the country, that the output gap, inflation rate, real exchange rate and the terms of trade all have a statistically significant relationship with presidential approval, showing a deep link between the economy and the success of an incumbent.

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