O seguro garantia no contexto da nova realidade da construção naval brasileira

Braido, Luís H. B.
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The world shipbuilding industry experiences a time of outstanding growth, which is driven by the growing trade among nations, in a world of ever growing globalization. The same occurs in Brazil. This paper’s main goal is to propose a methodology for the objective calculation of the value to be guaranteed to the client by the shipbuilding industry, in order to create the right economic incentives to the players in the principal-agent relation. Initially I will describe the Shipbuilding Technology and the economic problems we find, followed by a shipbuilding market exposition, including the consumer and the producer sides, either domestic or international. Finally we move to the detailing of the proposed insurance solution, formalizing the type of insurance, the coverage and monitoring levels. To achieve this we will use the Vector Autoregression methodology combined with a Monte Carlo Simulation. The outcome is then checked and we point out ways to improve the methodology as well as possible alternative uses to it.

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