Wisdom of the (expert) crowds: model ensembles for predicting arboviruses in a changing world

Abstract

Goal: Have an ensemble of forecasting models whose weights are dynamical and depend on how well each model is doing. Desiderata: - No recomputation needed: use the model outputs as is; - Dynamic and interpretable weights: we need to be able to tell stakeholders how and why the ensemble produces a given prediction; Reactive and tailored to the needs of surveillance personnel and decision-makers: easy to interpret visualisations and useful performance indicators.