Groups of Forecasters and their performances - Evidence from the Focus Survey

Data
2020-03-31
Orientador(res)
Issler, João Victor
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This study examines the accuracy of forecasters in the Focus Survey led by the Brazilian Central Bank. The survey respondents are stimulated to participate by the Top Five contest. We divide the participants into groups of updaters and non updaters, being the updaters the ones who place their forecasts at the contest day. The forecast combination method Extended BCAF is used to evaluate the groups forecasting accuracy. It is found that the updaters are considerably more accurate in the MSE sense than the non updaters. In order to not discard information, some correction rules are proposed so that we can rectify the non updaters forecasts. The corrected forecasts of non updaters are then united with the updaters forecasts and we apply again the Extended BCAF. When comparing to the group of only updaters though, the groups with the corrected forecasts still perform worse. Hence, the evidence shows that the group of updaters is the most accurate.


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