Mudanças institucionais, receitas cumulativas do governo federal e exportações no Brasil entre 1982 e 2001

Imagem de Miniatura
Título da Revista
ISSN da Revista
Título de Volume

Since the beginning of the 80s, the Brazilian Federal Government has been substituting its income raised by traditional taxation for income from social contributions (cumulative) in the make-up of its total revenue (change of type of administration). It is alleged that this procedure has come about as a consequence of the current rules regarding sharing (revenue from Federal Government taxes is shared with the states and municipalities while revenue from contributions is not). There are arguments in literature showing that this process of revenue decentralization arose because of the change in the political regime (military for democratic), others because of the New Constitution of 1988 and others even argue that it was only possible because the inefficiency of the contribution system was concealed by the inefficiency inherent in the inflationary process. On the other hand, facts that occurred in the same period, while not quoted in literature, could explain or help to explain this behavior. Amongst these facts is the fragmentation of executive power as from 1989, with the first presidential election and/or the process whereby the economy was opened up as from the 90s. Using the OLS technique it was observed that the New Constitution and the economic opening would explain this change in revenue administration. In any event, and quite apart from what might go to explain this change, the New Constitution is cited as being highly damaging to the competitiveness of Brazilian exports. There are various proxies trying to measure this effect, but none of them considers measuring the revenue administration process. We decided to try and do just that. Since we doubted the exogenity of the variable that represented the economic opening in the previous test we looked at the question using time series. In the long run, we discovered that the change of administration negatively affects exports and positively affects the opening of the economy because it harms imports less in terms of competitiveness (the contributions are due only when the imported products are sold.) JEL classification: H27; H77, H87.

Área do Conhecimento