Impactos econômicos e sociais de uma concessão rodoviária
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2022-09
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Mattos, Enlinson
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The study measures the economic impact on society after an investment program and the effects on the transfer of a highway management from the government to a private operator through a PPP (Public Private Partnership) contract. Using data compiled by SEADE from the 645 municipalities in the State of São Paulo from 2009 to 2020 and data from INFOSIGA, which account for road accidents on all highways in São Paulo since 2015, econometric techniques were applied to measure the economic and social impact. The effects were measured on economic growth in the 17 neighboring municipalities and on the reduction of road accidents (fatal and non-fatal) on the SP 255 and SP 281 highways using the Difference in Difference and Synthetic Control techniques. Statistical evidence was found indicating that the investment made by the road concession had a positive impact on GDP per capita in the municipalities bordering the concession by 4.33%. There was also robust evidence indicating a 47.5% reduction in fatal accidents after the implementation of the concession. Using the IPEA methodology for the cost of traffic accidents, an economy of between R$ 450 MM and R$ 541 MM was estimated for the State.