Future cenario planning in Brazilian logistics and transportation sector

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Sarfati, Gilberto
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In the last decades, the logistics sector is experiencing a great transformation worldwide. Thus, today, the efficiency of the whole logistic system for economic growth, diversification and operational costs as well as poverty reduction is widely recognized. According to the World Bank, Brazil is one of the largest economies in the world, but high logistics costs are still endangering this growth. These high costs are largely the result of strong regional differences in infrastructure, along with the burdens of the road sector, which comprises sixty percent of the country´s total freight volume transportation and the difficulties to get projects off the drawing board. Yet, nowadays, the Brazilian logistics is at the doorstep of a new revolution, in business practices, efficiency, as well as in quality and availability of infrastructure for transports and communications as new projects and practices to overcome the situation are being applied. The purpose of this study is to analyze not the present or the current trends of Brazilian logistics and transportation sector, but instead prospect possible future scenarios for the coming years. In other words, this work shows different possibilities of how the logistics and transportation sector can look in the future. To do so, this paper will use scenario planning methodology and in-depth interviews with experts related with the field to help clarifying these alternative scenarios.

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