Inflação e globalização: análise dos efeitos globais sobre a dinâmica da inflação brasileira
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2010-06-17
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This work discusses and tests the hypothesis that global factors changed the parameters of the domestic inflation process, yet, whether the output gap has lost its importance in the definition of the Phillips curve, causing it flatter. As a consequence, it is tightly associated with the decisions of the central bank in controlling inflation with interest rules. We show sound estimates that the Phillips curve is really flatter in the Brazilian case, as can be seen in the reduction of the values of the coefficients of the output gap by 40 per cent, when the equations are controlled by foreign output gap. Empirical evidence is confirmed also by the preponderant role played by the exchange rate misalignment in the Brazilian inflation process, far than the monetary rule. It doesn’t necessarily imply that the work of the central bankers is now less important, but they are likely facilitated by the more global integration, under conditions of international cushion liquidity and growth