A gestão dos royalties do petróleo pelo Estado do Rio de Janeiro, no âmbito do Rioprevidência
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0027-12-25
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Beltrão, Kaizô I.
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Purpose - To analyze the management of oil royalties during the fiscal crisis of the State of Rio de Janeiro and its relationship with the sustainability of Rioprevidência from 2007 to 2024. Methodology - A mixed-methods approach was adopted, combining qualitative and quantitative analyses. The study applies Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models, ARIMA projections, and Monte Carlo simulations, complemented by documentary research based on official data, legislation, and public management reports, grounded in the theoretical frameworks of the Natural Resource Curse, Public Finance, Agency Theory, and Economic Regulation. Findings - The findings indicate that the structural dependence on oil royalty revenues, combined with the advance of future revenues through securitization mechanisms, significantly contributed to the deterioration of the state’s fiscal balance and weakened the actuarial sustainability of the public pension system. The projections show that, even under scenarios of partial recovery in oil prices, fiscal and pension imbalances are likely to persist, highlighting the need for structural reforms and revenue diversification policies. Practical implications - The results provide relevant insights for public policy design aimed at reducing fiscal vulnerability to volatile natural resource revenues and improving subnational pension fund management. The study’s originality lies in the integrated use of multiple econometric modeling techniques and in the critical assessment of securitization as a fiscal crisis management strategya.