Disentangling merit from luck: the effect of swinging commodity prices on incumbent reelection prospects in Brazilian municipalities (2004-2012)
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2022-11-21
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Mello, Eduardo Jordão de Achilles
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Do swinging commodities prices help local incumbents remain in office? Despite the sizable scholarly research suggesting that the performance of Brazil’s economy is largely dependent upon thriving commodities cycles, the extent to which its swaying prices affect political fortunes in Brazil remains unclear. More specifically, we lack a comprehensive empirical enquiry to attest whether global commodities benchmarks affect the odds of incumbent reelection. Utilizing a fixed effects logit model with a novel dataset covering micro-level information for 5,568 Brazilian municipalities between 2004 and 2012, I show that mayors in Brazil are highly sensitive to exogenous factors that impact commodity prices, such as sudden global supply-chain disruptions related to the outbreak of Covid-19 and ripple effects linked to the current War in Ukraine. Empirically, I show that each additional unit increase in a global commodity index is associated, on average, with a 0.4% greater probability of mayors being reelected. By demonstrating that incumbency effects are strongly connected to outcomes that go beyond the tangible control of officeholders, my findings offer new insight into studies centered on citizen competence and effective government accountability.