Modelos de previsão de inflação e estudo da dinâmica inflacionária brasileira
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2009-11-30
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Bonomo, Marco Antônio Cesar
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The central purpose of this essay is to analyze the important variables of the inflation for the central bank’s monetary decision. Having in mind the importance of forward looking reaction of the monetary authorities in an inflation targeting regime, we study some short term inflation forecast models in order to find out which one has the most accurate prediction. In order to understand the brazilian inflacionary dinamics in these last years since the introduction of the inflation targeting regime, we analyse the dinamics of the inflation inercia and the passthrough.