Os impactos da comunicação do Banco Central no mercado brasileiro: o choque de notícias
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2014-02-25
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Guimarães, Bernardo de Vasconcellos
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The aim of this work is to verify how the communication of the Central Bank of Brazil (statements issued by the interest-rate setting committee, central bank minutes and inflation reports) may affect markets - the reaction of financial markets to news from the monetary authority. In that way, we focus on the difference between what the information is expected be and what the information actually is: the news shock. From the difference between expected and realized, we evaluate how much of this deviation is relevant in terms of price fluctuation for a range of assets. We find evidence that the COPOM statements seem to be very informative about future monetary policy, while this is not true for central bank minutes. When we analyze the interaction between statements and minutes since 2003 we see that there is a complementarity between them, with the news shock of the statements having more impact over short maturities and the minutes’ shock more impact over long maturities Finally, the inflation forecasts from the inflation reports seem to have meaningful effects on the yield curve.