Opções reais, operações urbanas e o mercado imobiliário na cidade de São Paulo
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Data
2012-02-09
Autores
Orientador(res)
Rochman, Ricardo Ratner
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Resumo
Introduction – highlights the problem of choosing the optimal time and the density to build a property, given the constraints of zoning regulations. Objective – To verify if there is a premium for the option to wait to build a property, analyzing the influence of CEPACS in the construction cost. Methods – The model extends the implications of Quigg (1993) and tests the model of Williams (1991). The data used are from Embraesp with 3207 launchings of real estate, from the Municipality of São Paulo, with 259,021 properties; from ZAP, with 22,073 properties, in the period 2005 to 2011. Results – The value of vacant land based on the model of real options exceeded the observed value in all scenarios, ranging from 16.6% to 61%. The biggest prize was obtained for commercial real estate (37.9%), followed by apartments (34.5%) and houses (23.9%). Conclusions – There is a prize to be expected to build a property. The CEPACs are used as a tool to increase density, also rising the cost of construction of the building. However, the increase of the density is limited by the additional cost of construction.