Avaliação de impacto do Programa Bilhete Único Intermunicipal do Estado do Rio de Janeiro
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2015-10-09
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Zucco Junior, Cesar
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This study aims to estimate the impact on income generated by the intermunicipal public transportation fare subsidy policy in the metropolitan region of the State of Rio de Janeiro (RMRJ) called Bilhete Único Intermunicipal (BUI) program. We used municipal level retail sales tax (ICMS) collection as a 'proxy' of income and estimated the impact of the BUI program through three variations of a differences-in-differences model (DD), for three different definitions of treatment and control groups, considering the period from January 2006 to January 2010 as pre-intervention and February 2010 to December 2014 as post-intervention. The first definition of control and treatment groups compared the evolution of the ICMS retail sales tax collection between municipalities participating in the program as the treatment group and unaffected municipalities located in the border region to RMRJ as the control group. The second definition employed the same control group, but used only the municipalities subject to intervention located more than 30 km away from the capital Rio de Janeiro as the treatment group. Finally, as a robustness test, treatment and control groups were selected via matching. We find generally positive impacts of the BUI on ICMS retail sales tax collection for the municipalities subjected to the public transportation fare subsidy policy, especially for the second and third definitions of control and treatment groups, suggesting an increase in income of its inhabitants after the introduction of the BUI program.