Escândalos políticos e o clima econômico dos países sul-americanos: evidências baseadas na confiança de especialistas
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2016-01-29
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Campello, Daniela
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What is the impact of political scandals on the economic climate of South American countries? The present work tries to answer this question through the evaluation of expert confidence in the economy of seven South American countries during the occurrence of political scandals in a period of ten years (from 2005 to 2014). We understand political scandals as news events disclosing episodes of corruption or abuse of power involving South American presidents. The economic climate is measured by the opinion of experts regularly consulted by the Latin American Economic Survey, a research that generates the Latin American Economic Climate Index. Evidences point out the influence of political determinants on the economic confidence of the general public. Few studies are focused on understanding the process through which experts derive their economic confidence. We use the panel regression model to verify correlations between political scandals and the Economic Climate Index. No significant correlations could be found assuming a model related to the international economy. Surprisingly, we find a significant and positive correlation when we add domestic economic variables into the analysis. We believe that future contributions for the theme should take into consideration the important role played by institutions as a fundamental element of the expert confidence.