Gestão de riscos na cadeia de suprimentos e valoração do custo da escassez de energia elétrica: modelos e uma proposta de implementação para o Brasil
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2014-05-30
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Gonçalves, Edson Daniel Lopes
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This paper presents the main applications of risk management techniques to the study of interruptions in supply chain networks. The motivation is the case of electric energy supply, matter of extreme importance to Brazil. In this sense, the calculation of 'cost of the deficit' or production loss given a failure in the supply of electricity (parameter used in all planning of the Brazilian electric sector) was chosen as a relevant factor to be analyzed. The main existing methodologies for calculating this parameter are presented making a comparison with the one currently in use in Brazil. Additionally, we present a proposal to implement alternative methodologies, used abroad, and based on the concept of VOLL ('Value of Lost Load') - value of the energy shortage for businesses or individual consumers and fundamental to the design of demand management programs.