Avaliação Econômico-Financeira do Projeto de Integração do Rio São Francisco sob a forma de Parceria Público-Privada
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2017-05-31
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Gonçalves, Edson Daniel Lopes
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The present work aimed to study a proposition of a financially sustainable operation of the Project for the Integration of São Francisco River and the Watershed of the Northern Northeast (PISF, acronym in Portuguese), known as the Transposition of São Francisco River Project. We have studied the possibility of a sponsored public-private partnership (PPP) concession, i.e. in addition to the tariffs charged to users, the concessionaire is also entitled to the payment of a compensation from the public partner (the Brazilian Government). The option for a PPP brings benefits mainly because of the difficult methodological and management aspects of the project, the most relevant initiative of the Brazilian government in the context of the institutional National Water Resources Policy. In addition, one of the major problems of the concession, the provision of guarantees by the government, can be solved through the Guarantor Fund for PPPs, already implemented and managed by Banco do Brasil. Concerning the financial modeling of the proposition, the costs of setting up the works, setting up the concessionaire, its operation and maintenance were calculated. The revenues and the tariffs required to the private partner´s remuneration were also estimated. The modeling results determined the average tariff to be charged for the PISF operation. An analysis of the sharing of this tariff between users and the Federal Government in different scenarios was made. The tariff model was studied in 2 scenarios, depending on the management fee charged by the operator and the initial financing of the project. The initial average tariff defined for the project ranged from R$0,512/m³ for the scenario with a management fee of 2% p.y., with no financing, to R$0,528/m³ for the scenario with a management fee of 4% p.y., being the initial investment of the project financed. For these tariffs, in a possible PPP, the initial government subsidy in the form of monetary consideration varied from R$0,010/m³ to R$0,020/m³, while the initial user tariff ranged from R$0,502/m³ to R$0,507/m³.