Capital controls, spillover effects and policy response

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2025-05-09

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Pannella, Pierluca

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This study aims to assess the existence of policy response in the context of imposing capital controls within certain groups of countries. The motivation for a possible policy response stems from the empirical evidence of capital flow deflection. An important innovation presented in this study is the use of a capital control measure that captures the intensive margin of a change in the level of capital controls. Specifically, we use the IMCAR measure, as introduced by Cantú (2019). To evaluate the existence of policy response, we employ an instrumental variables approach, where our instrument detects changes in the political orientation of governments based on the results of general elections. When using the IMCAR measure, our instrument is strongly related to an increase in capital controls for most of the countries analyzed. Additionally, we found evidence of policy response within some of the groups analyzed.

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