Taxa não inflacionária da capacidade utilizada: uma abordagem usando microdados brasileiros
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2014-12-23
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Polydoro, Angelo Luiz Rocha
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A Non-Inflationary Rate of Capacity Utilisation (NIRCU) for the Brazilian Economy has been developed based on microdata from the Manufacturing Survey and the Producer Price Index (IPA-M) series, both provided by the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV). Three types of NIRCU were evaluated: Survey NIRCU, Coincident NIRCU and Leading NIRCU. The first, using survey data alone aims at verifying the absence of inflationary pressure when companies declare in the Survey not to raise prices within the next three months and that their number of shifts equals the industry average. By matching the companies’ declarations with the Survey and the IPA-M, the other two NIRCUs check if the variation of the respective price indexes reflect the companies' assertion not to change their prices. The difference between the two latter approaches is that the first, the Coincident NIRCU, draws on Survey and price index data of the same period, whereas the Leading NIRCU verifies the price indexes of the quarter after the Survey. The effiency of these inflation pressure indicators was assessed by introducing the different NIRCU output gaps into the Phillips Curve framework and applying the Ordinary Least Square Method (OLS). The Leading NIRCU produced the worst results, while Survey and Coincident NIRCU performed well, especially the latter. They are comparable to most traditional output gap estimates.