Tax reforms and network effects
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2022-10-07
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This paper investigates the effects of a tax reform that eliminates tax rate heterogeneity and cumulative taxation using a general equilibrium model calibrated to Brazil that includes multiple sectors with market power. Industries are connected through input-output linkages and changes in tax costs are not confined within
industries. The tax reform shocks propagate through the production network, which
may amplify or mitigate their results. The revenue-neutral tax reform generates gains of 7.8% of GDP and 1.9% of welfare. Just eliminating VAT rate dispersion leads to a 5.9% increase in GDP. As expected, sectors that were heavily taxed prior
to the reform, as well as their suppliers, benefit the most. Yet, due to propagation effects, in 10 sectors direct taxes increased but output and profits did not fall. This is because their costs were reduced as a result of lower taxes on their suppliers
and/or increased demand. Moreover, tax distortions were leading to a shorter and
inefficient production chain as the reform significantly changed the linkage structure
of the economy.