A Previdência Social Brasileira após a transição demográfica: simulações de propostas de reforma
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2006-08-03
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Orellano, Verônica Inês Fernandez
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It is consensus that long run demographic trends are behind fiscal deterioration around lhe globe. The problem is even worst in Brazil because millions of potential contributors ' are left out of lhe pay-as-you-go system as a result of labor market informality. Based on long run model simulations, this work measures lhe demographic transition fiscal effect. And, admitting this new age distribution will hold, simulates which reform proposals have greater impact on reducing pension system deficits. Among lhe main conclusions are: (i) demographic transition alone is responsible for (almost) doubling lhe pension system equilibrium tax rale, and; (ii) although it is extremely important to approve traditional pension system reform proposals, increasing lhe regime's coverage through including part of lhe 45 million informal workers as contributors helps reducing deficits as much.